Inicio > Historias > Deuda pública, deficit público, endeudamiento privado y otras hierbas

> Deuda pública, deficit público, endeudamiento privado y otras hierbas <

Andábamos charlando en tuiter sobre todas esas cosas con jomaweb y biomaxi cuando JJ y meneldis nos dijeron que así no se puede.

Así que inauguro post sobre el tema que esta noche completaré con los tuits previos para poner contexto.

2011-11-29 11:21 | Anónima | 89 Comentarios | Link |

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Comentarios

1
De: eledhwen Fecha: 2011-11-29 11:28

Venga, va. Estábais en lo de la diferencia entre deuda y déficit (públicos).



2
De: Anónimo Fecha: 2011-11-29 11:33

Bueno, ahora que me lo he pensado gracias a BioMaxi, deuda pública es lo que ya has pedido prestado y tienes que ir edvolviendo deficit público es el motivo por el que tienes que pedir prestado: gastas más de lo que ingresas. Si en el pasado has tenido poco deficit, puedes tener poca deuda pero si hoy tienes mucho deficit, vas a necesitar pedir prestado y tu deuda va a aumentar.

España no tiene mucha deuda pública relativamente pero si que está teniendo un defiicit público alto, según el enlace de la wikipedia sobre economía de los estados miembros de la UE



3
De: Anónima Fecha: 2011-11-29 11:33

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4
De: BioMaxi Fecha: 2011-11-29 12:21

Decía yo que el problema de España no es de deuda pública, sino de deuda privada Y de déficit público.

Deuda total de los países desarrollados, en 2009:
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10403-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz1f5iSbos4

Aquí se ve qué parte pesa más en los números rojos de cada país. En el caso de España, destaca que tenemos la peor cifra en deuda de los negocios no financieros con respecto al PIB. Es decir, nuestras empresas tienen un pufo tremendo que sólo pueden pagar si crecen sus beneficios. Origen: desmoronamiento del sector de la construcción. (retro)Prospectiva: si no tienen acceso a créditos para refinanciar, declararán bancarrota y esa deuda se traspasará al sector financiero, amén de aumentar el paro por los despidos.

Si alguien conoce de un sitio con datos del año pasado, o incluso actuales arrastrando por trimestres, y a ser posible con todos los países de la zona euro (al menos), lo agradeceré :)

Deuda exterior:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

Aquí podemos ver que todo eso que debemos, gran parte se lo debemos a gente que está fuera de nuestras fronteras. Gente=bancos, sí, pero conviene recordar que esos bancos tienen dinero porque se lo ha prestado alguien. Están en peligro no sólo las inversiones de los tiburones, sino los planes de pensiones de muchos países donde la gestión no es pública.

Análisis de la casa: de los datos de 1 deducimos que el tejido empresarial español va como el culo, y puede ir a peor. Eso aleja a inversores de capital y frena el crédito desde los bancos (ya de por sí reacios por problemas en su propio sector), lo que hace que efectivamente la cosa vaya a peor.

Ante el frenazo económico, disminuyen los ingresos del estado, al tiempo que sube el gasto por culpa de ese "maldito subsidio" que los parados se empeñan en cobrar ;). Resultado: déficit público. En 2009, del 11,2%. En 2010, 9%

En los dos enlaces que he puesto se ve claramente que la deuda pública española no es un problema, de hecho somos de los que mejor estamos. El problema es el déficit tan elevado. Endeudarse tanto de golpe tiene muchas consecuencias, una de ellas es que en un mercado con problemas de liquidez, conseguir ese dinero cuesta más: pagamos más intereses por esta nueva deuda que por el mismo volumen de deuda ya acumulada.

Añadamos el factor riesgo: antes de la crisis del 2008 el dogma era que la deuda soberana era de riesgo 0, una inversión segura (es decir, para ganar más había que arriesgarse a invertir en otro tipo de productos que ofrecían más rendimiento pero con posibilidad de impago y por tanto pérdida de lo invertido). Pero llega 2008 y resulta que los gobiernos nacionalizan parte de las pérdidas de la banca. De repente hay países que aumentan tanto su deuda pública (déficits mayores que el español, como Irlanda o Grecia) que ponen en serio peligro la posibilidad de que puedan devolver el dinero prestado. La deuda soberana ya no tiene riesgo 0, así que los inversores piden más dinero a cambio de su capital, lo que ceba aún más el ciclo vicioso que lleva al posible impago.

Según la rueda del enlace 2, el impago de un país se traslada (se contagia) al siguiente país en la cadena de deudores. España no es Portugal, pero si los portugueses no pagan a los españoles, cabe la posibilidad de que los españoles no puedan devolver una parte a su vez a franceses y alemanes. Por eso el riesgo de invertir en España sube, aunque nada haya cambiado en España. Si rastreáis un poco, rápido se ve a qué eslabón conduce todo en la zona euro: Alemania. Alemania quiere que la gente pague lo que debe.

(Inciso: también puede averiguarse que el país europeo que está fundamentalmente detrás de todo lo adeudado es UK. Los europeos llevamos a la City de Londres nuestro dinero para invertirlo, y nos lo deben. Bueno, se lo deben a los alemanes, via el resto.)

Aquí es donde la cosa se vuelve confusa. Habréis notado que se habla de deuda soberana y riesgo país, pero los que tienen problemas de deuda son los inversores privados. Sí. Como es complicado hacer una auditoría inversión por inversión, y prever las consecuencias de los impagos en la red de préstamos caso por caso, se toma el riesgo país como un indicador genérico para cualquier inversión en dicho país. El Estado Español es un agente más dentro del sistema financiero España. Por tanto, si se cree que el sector privado puede ir a peor, aumenta su riesgo. Si el sector privado español va a peor, las cuentas del Estado Español irán a peor, así que aumentan los intereses de su deuda soberana.

¿Cuál es el problema de España, entonces? El pufo inmobiliario, que no ha reventado (como en USA o Irlanda) y que la banca se esfuerza mucho en que se desinfle de a poquito cada año. Hay cajas y bancos pequeños que van cayendo, con lo que aumenta el peligro de que los que vayan detrás sean otros más grandes. Si cae uno demasiado grande no sólo caerán los demás bancos, sino que las empresas que dependen del crédito para desempeñar su labor (es decir, todas) tengan que parar máquinas al no poder hacer frente a los pagos (véase GE en los USA). ¿Qué puede hacer el gobierno ante eso? Gastar más, bien en banca pública y política de intervencionismo directo en la economía (prohibido por los tratados europeos) o bien en rescatar a los bancos que vayan cayendo. Esto conduce a más déficit ("prohibido" por los tratados europeos) y mayor riesgo de impago de deuda soberana.

En resumen: la deuda soberana no es la causa de la crisis, es la consecuencia directa



5
De: BioMaxi Fecha: 2011-11-29 12:33

Anónima: exacto. Sólo que además, como la deuda que estás adquiriendo hoy es más cara, el gasto que comprometes para pagar deuda crece más que el simple aumento proporcional a al nuevo endeudamiento



6
De: JJ Fecha: 2011-11-29 18:19

Bueno, el pufo en España ha reventado bastante, pero lo cierto es que todavía no están bajando los precios demasiado, porque el mercado inmobiliario se sigue moviendo; mal, pero se sigue moviendo. Y además, las casas invendibles en manos de los bancos no se meten en la cuenta de resultados, con lo que figuran al precio original todavía.



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